A Statistical Overview: New York Red Bulls
The Red Bulls are fast approaching the halfway point of the season and with the weekend off it marks a good moment to take stock of what the numbers are saying.
After the disappointing Hudson Rivery Derby result from this past weekend, New York Red Bulls (“RBNY”) find themselves in a very respectable sixth overall in PPG (1.64 ppg). The team is slightly over-performing their expected points as per American Soccer Analysis (“ASA”), and has the ninth best xGD in the league. For xGF, RBNY ranks tenth best with 20.97 as per ASA (compared to 24 GF), and the 16th best xGA figure at 18.35 with 21 goals against (although to be fair, of this 4.53 xGA and 9 goals came in the two matches against the Crew and Inter where RBNY were completely outplayed).
Sandro’s Revolution
With the appointment of Sandro Schwartz, many in RBNY-land were unsure what to expect. Would this be Struber Redux, with a Berlin hardcore underground industrial techno press obsession, yearning to force the opposition into submission? The results so far have shown a team that is much more nuanced in its approach, exhibiting more flexibility in its press and line of contention (often deploying low block and mid-blocks), and a willingness to play with the ball when in possession. The statistics do support a team evolving from the purist Energy Drink Soccer mentality. The following charts form mid-April show a team that is no longer “single note.”
We see that the team through mid-April was implementing a different style of play. More interesting, and an even better example of this is comparing the 2024 side through this past weekend to Struber’s last full season in 2022. The most shocking difference is the steep decline in passes per defensive action metric, which is a useful standard to measure press intensity.
The press and posture historically overwhelmed opposing teams. But this year, opponents sometimes face RBNY teams with a deep line of contention, and the classification of RBNY as a mid-block team fits (e.g. the LAFC game). Of course, it is not as if Sandro completely ditched EDS. The team has a very low possession percentage and leans on heavy counter-attacking direct play, and the team still uses the press, leading the league in blocks and is third in interceptions, but the decline in intensity is noticeable. Part of that may be pragmatism due to a thin squad.
Key Contributions from Stars
A common talking point during the post-Marsch era has been a lack of production from our star players. This season is much different with several key players putting in great seasons. The first player who needs to be mentioned is Lewis Morgan, who has been spectacular in a striker role. He is tied for fifth in the league with nine goals. Also important is that Morgan has taken a very prominent leadership role, visibly directing his teammates during matches, and stepping up at key moments. His statistics tell the story of a dominant season so far:
Also important to highlight is the play of Frankie Amaya who has been tremendous this season in the midfield. While some of his advanced metrics are not as strong as last year, he drives RBNY. However, there may be some concern with wear and tear as he has suffered some knocks and played quite a few minutes.
The marquee signing of the off-season of course is Emil Forsberg, and while his stat line of four goals and four assists doesn’t indicate off the charts offensive production, the attacking midfielder has been dynamic in his time so far with the team with his very direct play (Morgan contributes to this as well). Forsberg of course is not your classic attacking midfielder, as his game is centered around quick transition moments on the ball, and taking chances, rather than a player who unlocks defenses with the pass (although Forsberg can do this). There do seem to still be some moments where Forsberg and his teammates are not on the same page, but hopefully Sandro can work out the miscues.
The other Designated Player on the RBNY roster is Dante Vanzier, who is fourth in the league in goal creating actions per 90 as per FBref. While Vanzier has been involved in several goals with six assists, his contributions in front of the goal remain an issue, with Elias Manoel now competing for the starting role. But the recent match against NYCFC highlights Vanzier’s qualities. He made many incisive runs that created chances and troubled NYCFC. He was able to combine effectively with his teammates. And his game is very direct, which fits the style of play that Sandro is implementing. Would an attacking midfield role suit Vanzier more?
Trouble in Paradise? And Other Thoughts
Despite the deserved plaudits for the work so far, there is a possibility that the team may be entering a difficult period. The injury to Peter Stroud thinned out an already undermanned midfield group (last season RBNY also had CCJr and Dru Yearwood on the roster). You are also starting to see some softness creep into the five-game rolling npxG differential charts:
While RBNY is generating more offense recently, it is also leaking more chances as well, which could be reflective of a midfield that isn’t controlling the game as effectively as it was earlier in the season.
Set pieces
One area where the Sandro team underperforms recent RBNY vintages, is on set pieces. This difference is apparent in the earlier radar charts comparing 2022 and 2024 RBNY teams. So far this year, RBNY has the sixth worst record in MLS in creating scoring chances from dead balls as per FBref.
Defensive fragility
The center back trio of Nealis, Reyes, and Eile each made a number of mistakes that led to goals, and is an area of concern considering how important center backs are to EDS. Earlier this season, RBNY saw a dramatic turnaround in highest quality chances per shot going from worst last season to first this year (xGA/Shots Against). Since that period though, RBNY trended to the middle of the pack by this defensive metric (Cincinnati is the league leader now). Historically, RBNY has always had a top five defense, and the mid-table position is something unusual. Yes, the schedule has been difficult, but the record is weaker than normal. One counterpoint though is that RBNY allows only the six fewest carries into the penalty area, and 11th fewest passes into the penalty area, which indicates the team is doing a good job of disrupting the opposition.
Progression problems in the attack?
A recent article by the excellent Ben Wright on Nashville’s offensive struggles, did serve to highlight some potential RBNY troubles in the attack. While Morgan, Forsberg, and Vanzier are all very direct players and the team is a heavy counter-attack team, the team is struggling to progress the ball through the midfield into the final third in terms of volume. Yes, this is mitigated by the fact RBNY is the lowest possession team, and the team does generate a decent amount of scoring chances compared to Nashville. But the general weakness in this area is something to monitor as the season progresses, as opposing teams are keying on clogging up the middle.
188 progressive carries (seventh worst in MLS)
59 carries into the penalty area (14th in MLS)
466 progressive passes (fourth worst in MLS))
301 shot-creating actions, i.e. two offensive actions that lead directly to a shot (14th in MLS)
1884 touches in the attacking third (eleventh worst in MLS)
266 touches in the attacking penalty area (tenth worst in MLS)