Matchday Musings: Inter Miami
A slightly too lighthearted look ahead to the Red Bulls' upcoming fixture
Photo credit: Irish Mailborski
I woke up at 2:00 in the morning to a phone call from Gregory, which was a little weird since I’ve never given him my number. He was in a total panic saying “Isaac please, I need your help, I need you to-” before the call was ominously cut off mid sentence. While I wasn’t 100% sure what he wanted, I assumed that he needed help with the Matchday Musings. I would verify his request if I could, but no one’s heard from him in 3 days.
You know there’s something just inherently silly about the name “Inter Miami''. I know what you dear reader are probably thinking, a team named after an energy drink probably shouldn’t be throwing rocks from that particular glass house, but I don’t care, I’m slinging some stones. MLS is hardly a stranger to teams naming themselves after established European brands, but Miami’s name is just a little too close to Serie A giants Inter Milan for comfort, an issue which has led to litigation between the two clubs. While it seems unlikely Miami will be forced to change their name (the two organizations were rumored to have reached a settlement back in 2021) if they ever need a replacement, I have a recommendation that’s more representative of Florida’s rich history. Proudly presenting: the Miami Toilet Iguanas. David Beckham, if you're reading this, the name’s all yours for the low, low price of lets say a draft pick and an international roster spot.
Bulletin Board
The Red Bulls’ red hot form to start the season has seemingly cooled off a bit in the last few weeks, with three consecutive draws against Chicago, LAFC and most recently Vancouver. While two of those are fairly tough teams (sorry Chicago, but hey at least there’s no relegation), it’s still been a bit of a frustrating stretch. Team discipline has also been a notable concern with two red cards over those games, the second of which has resulted in young Swedish center back Noah Eile’s suspension for this week. The loss of Peter Stroud to ankle surgery has also been a fairly notable blow, as the team has struggled to replace the creativity coming from the second year midfielder from Duke who appeared to be having a breakout season. There are still reasons to be optimistic; Emil Forsberg and Lewis Morgan remain in excellent form, giving the Red Bulls a level of offensive firepower the team has struggled to find in the post-Bradley Wright-Phillips era. Frankie Amaya and Daniel Edelman have also established themselves as one of the strongest defensive midfield pairings in MLS, a partnership that will be vital considering just who New York has to contain this week.
Inter Miami are the Red Bulls first repeat opponent of the year, as RBNY already thrashed the Herons 4-0 back in March in Harrison. Unfortunately, there’s not really much that can be taken away from that game, as it took place during the international break. Both teams had several absences, the Red Bulls were missing 5 regular starters to international duty, while Miami was down several starters of their own, including one Lionel Messi, who is fully healthy and expected to start this time out. So for any traveling fans who dropped $500 on tickets just to see him play, don’t worry you’ll get your money’s worth. Despite being filled with famous names like Luis Suarez, Jordi Alba, Robert Taylor and Sergio Busquest, Miami very much runs possession through Messi, to the extent that the Supporter Shield leaders are honestly not that threatening when he’s off the field. They’re 5-2-0 in MLS games he’s played and 1-1-2 in the games he’s missed. When he’s on the field, well let’s just say there’s a reason they have 9 more goals this year than the next closest team in the Eastern Conference.
This is a team that relies on its world famous midfielders to control possession, a fairly effective strategy considering their talent, that have earned them a 56.9% possession, which is third best in the league. By comparison the Red Bulls’ pressing style of play, while toned down compared to previous season, means they sit at 42.6%, the lowest possession percentage in the league. The point is, expect the Red Bulls to have the ball even less often than they normally do. Beyond Messi who in addition to leading MLS in goals is tied for the league lead in assists, Miami is full of skilled long ball passers, who do a rather excellent job of feeding the ball to Suarez, the two time European Golden Shoe winner with over 500 goals to his name. Even when opposing teams are able to cut off this delivery system, Miami has been able to consistently rely on moments of individual brilliance from Messi to find goals. Miami’s attack might be lethal, but their defense is often shambolic. This is a team that conceded 54 goals last season, the second most in the Eastern Conference, and while they’ve drastically improved their ability to control the ball, they don’t really look much better than last year when they don’t have it. It doesn’t help that some of their late 30s superstars have a bit of a reputation for not running back on defense. The Red Bulls trademark press is designed to create moments of panic for the team to capitalize on, while Miami’s defense is prone to panicking. Expect this game to be a fairly high scoring affair for both teams.
Stats Circle
New York Red Bulls MLS record: 4-5-1 (3rd-E)
Inter Miami MLS Record: 6-3-2 (1st-E)New York Red Bulls Last MLS Result: 1-1 vs. Vancouver Whitecaps Inter Miami Last MLS Result: 4-1 vs. New England Revolution
New York Red Bulls Top Scorer: Lewis Morgan (7)
Inter Miami Top Scorer: Lionel Messi (9)In 9 all-time meetings between the Red Bulls and Miami, there has never been a draw, with the Red Bulls winning 6 of these encounters.
Fun Fact: Inter Miami’s leading scorer in their 2020 debut season was Lewis Morgan, the same Lewis Morgan who is the Red Bulls current leading goal scorer. Morgan’s 7 goals this year have already surpassed his 5 goal total for the COVID shortened 2020 season.
Players To Watch
Julian Gressel
Look there's nothing left for me to say about Lionel Messi that hasn’t already been said. There’s nothing left for me to say about him that anyone reading this probably doesn’t already know. I don’t need to say that without a doubt, he will be the most important and impactful player on the field. All that unsaid, let’s talk about Julian Gressel. He might not be the flashiest player on Miami, and he’s not even in the same stratosphere of fame as all of the former Barcelona players on the team, but he will be one of the most dangerous players on the field. The longtime German-American right back, has largely shifted to the role of a box-box midfielder in the last two seasons and it is a role where he excels, thanks in part to his speed and endurance. However his greatest strength is his passing ability. He’s got an elite crossing ability, he’s tied for the most successful through balls in Miami, he has the most assists of any Miami player not named Lionel Messi. He is one of the best chance creators in the league, sitting in the 98th percentile in expected assists in the last year. Gressel isn’t the guy who is gonna be slotting in a goal from 30 yards out, but he is the guy who makes that play possible. He’ll be a concern, but likely not for the whole game, the role of a box-box midfielder is a strenuous one and at 30 he doesn’t quite have the stamina he used to. While he’s started every game for Miami in all competitions this year, he hasn’t played a full 90 minutes in a single MLS game so far this season.
Dante Vanzeir
Dante Vanzeir joined the Red Bulls last year as the club’s record signing, but it was a rough debut season, both on and off the field. Vanzeir has gotten off to a fairly quick start to this season, registering 6 assists through 8 appearances. On paper, that looks like a total turnaround, as he’s already surpassed his total goal contributions from last year. However Red Bulls fans still have reason to be skeptical about whether or not he can maintain that form, as four of those assists came in one game against a very depleted Miami team during the international window. He has seemed much more comfortable this season, as a healthy Lewis Morgan and the arrival of Emil Forsberg has allowed him to play more of a supporting role in the attack rather than the main role. However he remains erratic at times in front of goal, leading to calls for RBNY to use their open DP spot on a new striker this summer. That said, he tore Miami apart once, and even if it was a depleted Miami, that performance has to be in mind of the Herons’ coaching staff and players as they prepare for this week. In this game and the weeks to come, fans will be looking to Vanzeir to see if his early season accomplishments can become a consistent form, or if it was a quick flash in the pan.
Matt Miagza Model of the Week Award
David Beckham
Photo credit: @davidbeckham on Instagram
This is really more of a legacy award this week. Beckham might not be the heart throb that was posing shirtless on magazine covers in his playing days anymore, but had this award existed while he played for the Galaxy, he surely would’ve won on a few occasions. So we’re righting that wrong now, by making Beckham the first ever owner to be named the Matt Miagza Model of the Week.
Score Prediction:
The Red Bulls deal Lionel Messi his first MLS loss of the season, and complete the double over Miami in the process. It’s a very chaotic 3-2 victory, with a brace from Lewis Morgan and a goal from Dante Vanzeir.