Three Takeaways from the Red Bulls’ Home Draw against the Chicago Fire
The Red Bulls should have won in the face of real adversity
In years past a 42nd minute red card to a center back leading to the subbing-off of our star striker would have often resulted in a loss. Add to that a middling performance from DP Emil Forsberg and a serious injury to starting defensive midfielder Peter Stroud, and the old Red Bulls would have lost this match nearly 100% of the time.
On Saturday night, however, against gusty Harrison winds, the New York Red Bulls did not capitulate. Instead, after going a man down near the end of the first-half, this Red Bulls squad seemed to grow into the match, playing more determined and compact than before.
And the match statistics support this. Despite dropping from ~60% possession before the red card to 42.2% by the end of the match, the Red Bulls seemed the far more likely team to score a goal on the night. The Red Bulls outshot Chicago 17 to 8 and ended the match with a 2.0 expected goals value compared to Chicago’s 0.8.
The point I’m trying to make here is that the resilience showed by this Red Bulls side in the face of red cards, injuries, middling performances, and a classic ‘trap game’ opponent, makes me very optimistic looking towards the rest of the season. And I think fans should also feel a level of confidence coming out of this performance.
Sandro Schwarz is tactically elite
The Red Bulls’ resilience I mentioned in the first takeaway seems very much tied to the arrival of coach Sandro Schwarz. Except for the difficult road match in Columbus, the Red Bulls have seemed prepared for every match they’ve faced this season. And near the end of the first half against Chicago, a man down, Schwarz didn’t look phased.
At the half-time whistle, Schwarz rushed into the locker room to begin game planning. In the post-game presser, we would learn part of Schwarz’s strategy was to switch formations to a 4-3-2 or 4-3-1-1, with Morgan leading the attack in front of Emil Forsberg and a midfield three of Wikelman Carmona, Frankie Amaya, and Peter Stroud.
And even after Stroud’s nasty injury, Schwarz was able to substitute on Daniel Edelman as a like-for-like replacement. He also eventually brought on Elias Manoel for Forsberg as more of a second forward, a move which could have (an arguably should have) led to a game-winning goal in stoppage time.
Schwarz seemed to agree when asked about balancing disappointment over the draw with pleasure in how his team responded to adversity in the post-game press conference: “No, it’s true that we had a lot of chances…the second half was great, great performance tactically, especially in our defensive structure and also to have these situations with four central midfield players. We changed then also the structure and both 8 positions Pete and Wiki with Frankie Amaya was great, great job also the back four. We said this in half-time. We have to defend seriously…focus on our transitions…a little disappointed about the chances but it’s more to have this feeling with this great tactical performance and also with this mentality was very good.”
Tactically, this team is on a completely different level from last season, and that paired with improving player quality through guys like Forsberg and a returning Morgan can only spell good things for the Red Bulls this season.
Wiki starts his fourth consecutive
When Wikelman Carmona signed for the New York Red Bulls in 2021, expectations were high. The Red Bulls had signed another Venezuelan U-17 talent in Cristian Casseres Jr. only a few years earlier, and he was playing very well (well enough to earn a move to Toulouse FC a couple of years later). So when we didn’t see much of Carmona under then coach Gerhard Struber or his successor Troy Lesesne, there were questions about his future/role at the club.
Then Carmona’s option was exercised at the end of the 2023 season, and with rumors of a 4-2-2-2 formation being used the following season, it became clear that Carmona’s role in the squad would be more central (no pun intended). And now Carmona is on a run of four straight starts, including a great goal against Inter Miami.
And Carmona’s ascendance did not stop there, however. In his fourth start against the Chicago Fire, Carmona played the full 90 minutes and was critical to the Red Bulls’ compact defensive performance. According to FBRef, Wiki had 9 tackles, 1 interception, and 3 blocks on the night. Those stats bested Peter Stroud’s 2 tackles, 1 interception, and 4 blocks, as well as Frankie Amaya’s 2 tackles and 2 interceptions.
On his performance, Schwarz shared after the match “What I can say is…he is physical…and technically very good. And he showed us in the last games and also today. It was difficult with ten players to play the 8 position on the right side, more in the center, but he’s physically in a very good spot and also to keep the ball and create some situations, it’s a very good performance from Wiki.”
In the 4-2-2-2 formation that the New York Red Bulls like to employ, the two attacking midfielders are crucial to connecting the double-pivot midfielders with our forwards. And with Omir Fernandez’s departure, Gjengaar still learning how to click with this squad, Luquinhas long gone, and few other options on the bench, Wiki will be a very important contributor this season. Hopefully, he can continue his development and reach the heights we all imagined back in 2021.