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Matchday Musings: LAFC
A slightly too lighthearted look ahead to the Red Bulls' upcoming fixture
My habit of stalking people on Instagram is becoming a problem. Every once in a while when a friend of mine reposts someone else’s post, I’ll click on the post and look through their profile, and then look at the people tagged in their photos, and then look through people tagged in their photos, and slowly go through this online network.
The issue is that I forget that these are real people, who most of the time go to my school, and when I see them on campus I freak out precisely because I’ve missed this crucial detail. So to the two strangers who most likely watched me as I stared at them briefly and then started frantically texting my friend “I need to stop stalking people on Instagram”, I’m sorry. You don’t know my sins, but I’m sorry.
Bulletin Board
The high-flying Red Bulls visit Hollywood this weekend, and find themselves in the unfamiliar driving seat at this point in the season. Now eight games in, the team is gaining some legitimacy and has gotten a good variety of impressive results, from wins where they were fully in control, to fighting for wins, and even a couple of scrappy, character building draws in between. But now the Red Bulls face a superteam like no other in the league, and despite their underperforming as of late, the Black and Gold are still a hefty matchup for this team on the rise.
LAFC have been a powerhouse since they set foot in the league, and having made it to the MLS Cup Final two years running, they certainly didn’t plan on slowing down. But the start to the 2024 season has been slightly humbling, after some key departures in the offseason LAFC are in a weaker state than years past, despite their experienced and quality-laden roster. A squad with the likes of Dennis Bouanga, Ilie Sanchez, Eduard Atuesta, Hugo Lloris, Mateusz Bogusz, and Timothy Tillman shouldn’t be 3-2-3, but they are. Points have been dropped in unexpected places, with Minnesota and Real Salt Lake causing them more problems than the LA Galaxy and Nashville. Defense has been below the elite par of years past, not coincidentally after the retirement of Giorgio Chiellini and the departures of Diego Palacios and Maxime Crépeau, longtime starting left back and goalkeeper respectively. Their goal concession is still pretty average compared to the rest of the league, but merely not being in crisis doesn’t win you titles. In fact this can be said for much of their play so far: slightly above average finishing, but not elite, slightly above average chance creation, but not elite, and slightly above average possession, but not elite. Especially in a league like MLS that almost mandates parity, drop-offs like these are to be expected, but LAFC still have the tools to cause problems on their day.
Steve Cherundulo has been with this core group for two years now, and has an intimate familiarity with the 4-3-3 the club has played for much of its existence. Vaguely Spanish tactically, LAFC are very methodical in the attack, trying to control the game in the midfield and then shifting out wide to either Bouanga or Cristian Olivera to create 1v1 or 2v1 opportunities. But this is not to be confused with being slow, LAFC are actually among the lowest in the league in average possession, choosing to be very direct and aggressive with carrying the ball progressively, and entrusting their players to make the right decisions and take people on. Second highest in attempted take-ons, and third in successful ones, LAFC is Pep Guardiola’s nightmare. It’ll be an interesting battle for New York’s fullbacks, especially for the right-back of choice that is tasked with taking care of the reigning Golden Boot winner Bouanga.
With so much of the team’s playstyle revolving around getting him in positions to showcase his individual ability, will Kyle Duncan or Dylan Nealis be able to match up? The latter seems the more likely to start, given his great form and better defensive abilities, but don’t count out the value of Duncan’s speed in taking care of a player like Bouanga. Overall, it should be a fun late night of individual battles, Ilie and Tillman facing off against Amaya and Edelman, Forsberg trying to evade Atuesta, and Lewis Morgan attempting to continue his hot streak against Jesus Murillo.
Stats Circle
RBNY MLS record (4-3-1, 2nd place - East);
LAFC MLS Record (3-2-3, 6th place - West)RBNY Top Scorer: Lewis Morgan (6);
LAFC Top Scorer: Dennis Bouanga, Timothy Tillman, Mateusz Bogusz (3)The Red Bulls have never beaten LAFC in California, and LAFC remain undefeated at home this season
Fun Fact: LAFC winger Tomas Angel Gutierrez is the son of Red Bulls legend Juan Pablo Angel, which is cool, but is overshadowed by the fact that his older brother Geronimo is a model and singer that got his start on a Columbian children’s version of The Voice, and now posts thirst traps on Instagram.
Players to Watch
Daniel Edelman
For the second straight week Edelman is the player to watch, but under much more unfortunate circumstances. Last week I spoke about how the battle between him and the resurgent Peter Stroud would play out, but now that the latter suffered an injury that will be keeping him out indefinitely, the starting defensive midfield spot is once again Edelman’s. What was once a position of strength becomes minor concern in this light, with no natural backups left to play at the position, it will be interesting to see if Schwarz risks sticking to the double pivot that has worked so well to start the season, seeing as there are now only two players to fill the role.
If there is a slight system change, how does that affect Edelman? His partner in crime Frankie Amaya is in the form of his life, but has played other midfield roles (admittedly to lesser effectiveness) and could be the one to move in the case of any change. Regardless, not having the cover of Amaya would give Edelman an attacking responsibility that possibly outdoes his skillset. And if Schwarz doubles down, then how does the team cope with having no cover at a physically demanding position that frequently requires substitutes? Squad depth was an area of concern to begin the season, and it seems the Red Bulls are suffering the consequences after being thrown in a loop after a single injury. Can Edelman be a stopgap?
Aaron Long
For the second straight week the Red Bulls see an old friend, this time in the shape of a center-back who was the face of the club’s finest days. Long now plies his trade on the West Coast, where after playing a bit-part role his first season at the club, he’s secured the starting job after Chiellini’s retirement. But the Italian leaves big shoes to fill, and at 31, Long has a ways to go to show that he’s still the same player he once was. Long is a solid, no-nonsense defender of the Red Bulls mold. He’s intensely physical, with good positioning, and blessed with the pace to keep up with some of the world’s elite. Despite online ridicule of his longtime USMNT presence, he’s consistently been one of the top defenders of the league, and remains a very skilled player as he turns into the Red Bulls’ opponent.
But what’s interesting to note is not his strength, but a particular weakness on the ball. Long is a rather average passer, and while he didn’t need to worry about playing out of the back too much in New York, facing against the rampant press could be an issue for a guy who’d much rather just boot it long (pun intended). Can the New York forwards give the California native enough to worry about to force a mistake? Against a team that’s so strong and secure in the midfield, it may be the weak point that Sandro Schwarz will want to press on. Sorry, old friend.
Matt Miazga Model of the Week
Omar Campos
I asked my girlfriend to help me pick this week’s handsomest man, but now I’m just upset as he looks nothing like me and she was a little too excited. Advice?
Score Prediction
LAFC aren’t as invincible as years past, so I’m fairly confident in the Red Bulls’ ability to get a historic result on the West Coast. 2-1 Red Bulls win, and a celebratory trip to Disney Land for Julian Hall.