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Matchday Musings: Toronto FC
A slightly too lighthearted look ahead to the Red Bulls' upcoming fixture
When you hit rock-bottom there’s nowhere to go but up. In theory, I don’t know if that actually holds true in practice. But please, please, please let that be true. At this point that’s the only hope we got.
Bulletin Board
There’s no way to spin it, things are bad. Regardless of what happens from this point on, the Red Bulls 5-1 defeat to NYCFC is beyond a doubt the low point of the season and is the single worst loss the team’s had in the history of the rivalry. The game was essentially over in the first five minutes, and only served to get worse from there. An uncharacteristically bad pass from Carlos Coronel led to a turnover in the Red Bulls’ own box and the first NYCFC goal. From there, the team’s mentality completely collapsed. Except for a Dante Vanzeir goal in the 28th minute, the team never really looked like they believed that they could get back in that game. In the wake of such a historic defeat, the Red Bulls’ clinching their MLS record 15th straight playoff appearance was a very hollow victory. Even Emil Forsberg’s return to action, coming off the bench in the 58th minute, couldn’t wipe the bad taste this one left in every Red Bull fan’s mouth. That’s the kind of loss that is going to sting for a while. A long, long while.
Toronto FC’s coming off a rough week of their own, losing the Canadian Championship to Vancouver in painful fashion on penalty kicks. A team losing their only real shot at a trophy can be a tough blow to bounce back from, but one that Toronto has to put in the rear view mirror very quickly if they want to be able to make the playoffs. They’re currently in a 3 way tie with Philadelphia and Montreal for the last 2 Eastern Conference spots, while having played one more game than both of their competitors. They’re a team that no longer controls their own destiny and needs to pick up every single point they can get. Both teams are desperate and both teams seem like they’re one more big loss away from falling apart completely. This could very well be the last chance for either of them to turn their seasons around.
TFC typically lines up a 3-4-3, a formation which prioritizes their strong full backs and wingers, as they push up the field, but leaves very little protection for their rather weak back line. A -17 goal difference and 56 goals on the year aren't exactly numbers one would expect from a potential playoff team, and speaks to a squad with a significant quality contrast between its offensive and defensive focused players. If the Red Bulls can plug up the passing lanes in the midfield, then TFC doesn’t really have the physicality necessary for a recourse, and the Red Bulls’ press will be too much for the Toronto center backs to handle, leading to mistakes and opportunities. When these two faced off in June, the Red Bulls did just that and thrashed the Candians in a thorough 3-0 victory. Not a lot has gone right since, and whether the Red Bulls have psychologically recovered enough from Saturday’s massacre to execute that game plan, will likely be the deciding factor in this game.
Stats Circle
New York Red Bulls MLS record: 10-14-7 (6th-E) Toronto FC MLS Record: 11-4-17 (8th-E)
New York Red Bulls Last MLS Result: 1-5 vs NYCFCToronto FC Last MLS Result: 1-1 vs. Chicago
New York Red Bulls Top Scorer: Lewis Morgan (12)Toronto FC Top Scorer: Federico Bernardeschi & Prince Owusu (8)
In 21 all time games at BMO Field, the Red Bulls have 6 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses.
Fun Fact: TFC have won a record 8 Canadian Championships, though they have not won since the 2020 final, which was actually played in 2022 due to the original tournament being canceled by the Coronavirus Pandemic. They beat Canadian Premier League side Forge in the sole game of that ‘tournament’ before losing the 2022 Canadian Championship final to Vancouver a month later.
Players To Watch
Richie Lareya
It’s been a season of highs and lows for the Canadian national team wingback. After suffering a hamstring injury in TFC’s opening game in February, Lareya would miss the next three months of the season, recovering just in time to leave his club for another month to play a key role in Canada’s surprise run to the Copa America semi-final. Lareyea wouldn’t make his second start of the year for Toronto until July 17th. It’s easy to underestimate Lareya’s presence on the field, he’s not someone who is going to put up gaudy goal or assist totals, but whether he’s playing as true winger, fullback, or even midfielder, he remains Toronto’s most flexible player, and is more than capable of slicing up a defense with a well placed cross or a quick pass. More importantly he offers Toronto a steady presence on the left side of the field that they just didn’t have in his absence, shoring up what in the past has been a significant weak spot. He’s not the guy who wins the game, at least not anymore, but he is the guy who stops the other team from winning the game.
Carlos Coronel
Look, Saturday was rough, I’ve said that already. Carlos Coronel was not the biggest problem on the field, but he still had one of his worst ever games in a Red Bulls’ jersey. Anytime the opposition puts 5 goals in the net, then the goalie has to be the player to watch in the next game out. Morale is low, and the Red Bulls have three games left before the playoffs. It’s gotta be a very quick turnaround for him, there just isn’t really enough time left for anything else. He has to shake off Saturday and show that the game was just a poor fluke. At this point in the season with the pressure racking up, one bad game can easily snowball into a slump. Coronel is a much better goalkeeper than his worst day, now he just has to show that his worst day is behind him.
Prediction
The Red Bulls take an early lead, but Toronto grabs 2 goals in the second half for a 2-1 defeat.
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