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An anlytical RBNY Preview
Alex Xenopoulos will be looking at RBNY all season with a unique Analytics driven lense. He kicks it off with review and preview of the season to come
2023 Overview and the Departure of Struber
One of the common points of debate in American sports is that of the “eye test” versus the “data.” It divides fans for the last generation, and as more and more teams use data to inform all types of decisions, the nature of the sport changed as well. The 2023 Red Bull New York (RBNY) side in theory, was a very good team. It had the fourth highest xGD of 13.99 as per ASA (improving on a xGD in 2022 of 9.61 for sixth in the league, and a xGD in 2021 of 10.37 for fifth in the league). This included the second-best defense with a xGA of 33.65 (GA totaled 37 for fourth best), and a ninth best xGF of 47.64 (GF totaled only 35 for fifth worst!). However, despite such strong metrics, the 2023 RBNY side only won 43 points (17th in the league), while winning 53 points in 2022 (sixth in the league), and 48 points in 2021 (13th in the league). The level of underperformance in many respects is baffling, but when you analyze the team and course of the season, there are some plausible explanations.
The big news of course was the departure of $2m Head Coach Gerhard Struber on May 8th, 2023 and his replacement with Assistant Coach Troy Lesesne. The departure of Struber seemed to be pre-ordained as the Austrian always aimed for jobs in Europe. And yet while the team won the xG metrics, the results were not there.
This xG battle became a meme among the fanbase in the last twelve months. Over his MLS tenure, Struber averaged approximately 1.37 PPG in the regular season. At the start of the 2024 season, Struber saw a horrific PPG of 0.82. Moving on from the Austrian was necessary as the results were incredibly poor. Lesesne to close out the 2023 season averaged 1.48 PPG, enough to overcome the horrible start to the season and make the playoffs, after which he was also let go. The noticeable difference with the Lesesne era was a less spastic approach towards roster rotation and tactics. The tactical roles of the team became clearer, and while the goals and results did not come at the rate the fanbase wanted, there was a clearer tactical plan beyond simply aiming to destroy the game.
The team did take a much more active approach towards the game. Obviously with the high press, RBNY would concede quite a few shots, but in 2023 there were chances that were created both from set pieces and open play. In comparison, the 2022 team was much more reliant on the counterattack to generate chances, but was moving the ball consistently into the box.
What to make of this remarkable lack of efficiency? It has been a consistent issue the last years with a number of different players leading the line, but the 2023 season was particularly poor. Part of it is due to injuries to the team’s top goal threats in Luquinhas, Dante Vanzier, and Lewis Morgan. The other part is the under-performance of the now departed Luquinhas in the midfield, where he was not able to provide the playmaking abilities so dearly lacking (he also suffered from injuries, but seemed to improve during the season as his role was more defined). But chances were created, and the goals did not come. Incredibly, every single striker on the squad underperformed their npxG as per FBref. Sometimes in this sport the ball bounces funny, and that with a lack of quality in front of the goal were the main contributing factors.
Tactical outlook, off-season changes, and roster composition
As noted, RBNY moved on from Interim Head Coach Troy Lesesne despite a decent playoff showing, and RBNY is now helmed by Sandro Schwarz. So far this pre-season the German seems to favor the 4-2-2-2 formation (long the aim of the organization since the Marsch era, but never implemented), with many of the traditional pressing attributes. It is hoped that Schwarz, in addition to not repeating the poor man management and over-engineered roster deployment of Struber, will implement a more ball-oriented style of play.
The big incoming acquisitions, discussed more below, are sister club RB Leipzig star Emil Forsberg, Dennis Gjengaar, and Noah Eile. However, 2024 sees quite a few prominent departures, including Cristian Casseres Jr, Luquinhas, Tom Barlow, Dru Yearwood, and Omir Fernandez. While many of these players did not achieve the effectiveness expected of them, they did soak up a lot of minutes.
In addition, these same players contributed mightily to overall production. It remains to be seen if RBNY as presently constituted will be able to match the lost production.
Target Strikers – Elias Manoel (ST/SS); and Corey Burke
In the pre-season so far, Schwarz most often lined up the squad with two forwards. This likely means that Manoel will lead the line, with Burke assuming the role of the productive substitute. Both largely underperformed in 2023, and will need to be more effective this year. Acquiring another striker should be an objective this summer.
Supporting Strikers – Dante Vanzeir (SS); Lewis Morgan; Serge Ngoma; and Roald Mitchell.
Dante Vanzeir was the club-record signing last year, and he did not exhibit the game-breaking qualities expected of him. He strikes the ball well and has a good motor, but a key measure of success for Schwarz is if he can unlock Vanzier. Lewis Morgan and Serge Ngoma are two other players who missed most of the 2023 season due to injury. Morgan’s expected contributions are highly uncertain after several medical procedures. His ability to strike from long range was a difference maker in 2022.
Attacking Midfielders – Emil Forsberg (LAM); Dennis Gjengaar (RAM); Cameron Harper; Wikelman Carmona; Julian Hall; and Ronald Donkor.
The likely starters of this group will be Forsberg and newly acquired speedy winger Dennis Gjengaar. This group has the most depth of any position on the team, with Harper, Wiki, and Hall all likely contributing. Peter Stroud may also play in an advanced position.
Wildcard: Emil Forsberg was the big acquisition in the off-season, replacing Designated Player Luquinhas, who left for Brazil. Not only was Forsberg awarded the number 10 jersey, but he was also named captain. The big concern for RBNY is Forsberg’s durability (he only played 25% of RB Leipzig’s minutes last season, after playing 48% of available minutes the season before), but also a natural decline in effectiveness for the 32-year-old. And yet, in those limited minutes last season, he still was extremely effective in the Bundesliga. He excelled in the pre-season, providing a much-needed veteran presence to the team. In addition to playmaking, Forsberg may also provide a goal scoring threat.
Deep-lying midfielders – Dan Edelman (6); Frankie Amaya (8); Peter Stroud; and Bento Estrela.
Lesesne was able to steady the team when he paired Edelman at the 6 with Amaya in a freer 8 role in a Y-midfield. Edelman received quite a bit of acclaim for his steady play at the 6, but Amaya was the unsung hero for the 2023 RBNY side. If him and Edelman can resume this partnership at the 2023 level, it will go a long way towards having a successful season. Peter Stroud will likely assume back-up duties, but another quality midfielder would be a wise addition.
Fullbacks/Wingbacks – Kyle Duncan (RB); John Tolkin (LB); Dylan Nealis; Curtis Ofori; and Juan Mina.
After breaking out in 2022, John Tolkin in 2023 established himself as one of the best fullbacks in MLS, and an outside regular for the USMNT. Kyle Duncan returns again as well on the right side with Dylan Nealis (who also capably filled in CB roles). The team has depth with Dylan Nealis, Juan Mina, Curtis Ofori, and Jayden Reid. Cameron Harper also saw time in both fullback positions in 2023.
Center backs – Andres Reyes (RCB); Sean Nealis (LCB); Noah Elie; Aidan O’Connor; and Davi Alexandre.
While the xGA statistics were once again stellar in 2023, the team did seem vulnerable compared to past years. The 21-year old Noah Elie is the big addition as the third center back on the roster, and impressed in the pre-season due to his size and passing. He will likely see quite a bit of action backing up starters Reyes and Nealis, or when the team deploys a 3-back system. First-round Super Draft pick Aidan O’Connor will also be counted on to contribute.
Key contributor: Andres Reyes played his two worst games in his RBNY career against Cincinnati in the playoffs. Not only did he contribute to all four goals against, but he also missed the final PK. His 2023 season for many seemed a like a set-back, and he did not meet the lofty expectations. But he did prove yet again to be an important contributor to the team, and was a very active and range-y defender. He also had the sixth highest g+/96 contribution as per ASA of any center back in the league. His continued improvement is critical to the success of the team.
Goaltenders – Carlos Coronel; Ryan Meara; and AJ Marcucci.
Coronel has not been able to meet the level of his spectacular 2021 season, but has been solid in 2022 and 2023. Yet his ability to come up with the big save, and one of the few very local leaders makes him indispensable.
Outlook
The hope is that with a full pre-season with Schwarz, and with a steadier approach to the roster, the 2024 side will improve on the 2023 results. However, while the side did add Emil Forsberg, several key contributors left the team, with depth concerns being an issue. In addition, there are injury concerns with Forsberg, Vanzier, and Morgan. The deep midfield and backline with Coronel should be effective though, and will provide the base to maintain competitiveness. If Schwarz can amalgamate the attacking components, and get a bit more out of the strikers, 2024 could be a successful enterprise. Adding additional quality to the midfield and striker positions should be a priority in the summer transfer window.